Donald Trump, the master of the deal, is embarking on a high-stakes charm offensive across the sun-drenched sands of the Gulf, where three oil-rich nations are poised to transform their influence into tangible gains. His upcoming state visit, a lavish affair spanning Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, is a testament to the transactional nature of his foreign policy, a world where personal ties and hefty investments hold sway.
These Gulf states, having diligently cultivated relationships with the former president, are now ready to reap the rewards. They have dangled trillions of dollars in US investments, positioning themselves as indispensable mediators in the very conflicts Trump seeks to resolve, from the turbulent Gaza Strip to the simmering tensions with Iran. This strategic dance, a delicate blend of diplomacy and financial enticement, has secured them the coveted privilege of hosting Trump’s first state visit of his second term, a clear signal of their elevated status in the eyes of the American powerbroker.
“In Trump’s book, the Gulf states tick all the right boxes,” observes Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain. “They pledge to invest trillions in the US economy and spend colossal amounts on US weapons systems.” This quid pro quo, a hallmark of Trump’s approach, has fuelled a renewed sense of optimism in the region, a feeling that was notably absent during the Biden administration.
The Gulf states, smarting from what they perceived as a lack of US engagement, had begun to diversify their strategic partnerships. But with Trump back in the Oval Office, they see a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” as one Gulf official put it, to solidify their positions as the US’s premier security and economic allies. “Now is the time to cement ties with Washington, and even secure greater privileges in their relationship with the world’s most powerful nation,” says Ebtesam AlKetbi, founder of the Emirates Policy Center think tank in Abu Dhabi.
Each nation, however, has its own distinct agenda.
Saudi Arabia: A Quest for Security and Nuclear Ambitions
For Saudi Arabia, the primary objective is “security, security, and security,” according to Ali Shihabi, a commentator on Saudi politics and economics. Riyadh seeks a firm US commitment to regional stability, a reassurance that Trump’s notoriously fickle attention will remain focused on their concerns. The Saudis are also pushing for a landmark defense and trade pact, a deal that stalled last year over their insistence on a path to Palestinian statehood, a concept that Firas Maksad of Eurasia Group suggests is now “dead.”
Riyadh’s desire to develop a civil nuclear program, complete with domestic uranium enrichment, is another key priority. This ambition, however, raises concerns in the US and Israel about nuclear proliferation, a delicate balancing act that Trump must navigate. The potential for lucrative contracts for American firms, however, provides a powerful incentive.
The Saudis, ever pragmatic, are framing their relationship with the US as a mutually beneficial endeavor. Trump has publicly stated he’d visit if they invest $1 trillion, a figure Riyadh has not confirmed, but they have announced plans for $600 billion in trade and investment over four years. Yet, the recent drop in oil prices, partly driven by Trump’s tariffs, threatens to undermine their ambitious economic diversification plans, creating a potential point of contention.
UAE: The AI Powerhouse and Investment Hub
The UAE, with its vast wealth and strategic vision, sees investment as the cornerstone of its relationship with the US. Abu Dhabi, self-styled “the capital of capital,” has pledged trillions in US investments, aiming to solidify its position as a global economic powerhouse. “Expanding trade and investment is a way to reinforce this strategic partnership,” says AlKetbi.
A $1.4 trillion investment plan, focused on AI, semiconductors, manufacturing, and energy, underscores the UAE’s ambition to become a global leader in advanced technology. “The UAE sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to become a significant contributor in AI,” says Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president.
However, Abu Dhabi’s quest for AI dominance hinges on access to US microchips, a sensitive issue given the Biden administration’s export restrictions. The UAE hopes Trump’s visit will pave the way for a relaxation of these curbs, ensuring their technological ambitions are not thwarted.
As Trump descends upon the Gulf, the stage is set for a series of high-stakes negotiations, where trillions of dollars and strategic alliances hang in the balance. The desert kingdoms, with their carefully crafted charm offensive, are poised to extract maximum benefit, shaping the future of US-Gulf relations for years to come.
